
When Will Y2Q Happen? How Leaders Accelerate PQC Readiness
“When will Y2Q happen?” remains one of the most asked — and most misunderstood — questions in post-quantum cryptography. A new scenario-based Monte Carlo assessment from SITG-Consulting’s Strategic Forecasting Laboratory models a roughly 65% cumulative probability of an operational RSA-2048 compromise by 2028, rising to approximately 90% by 2029, with a non-trivial probability beginning as early as 2026–2027. Quantropi has anticipated a 2027–2029 window since 2022, based on research trajectories, investment patterns, and the convergence of enabling technologies.








